Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation, & Risk Management, a report
commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy,
published February 2005. “As peaking is approached,
liquid fuel prices and price volatility will
increase dramatically, and, without timely
mitigation, the economic, social, and political
costs will be unprecedented.”
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AlkalizeForHealth
Global oil discovery peaked in 1962. Since 2001, the value of oil discovered is less than the money spent looking for it. This suggests that the search for oil is coming to an end. The number of operating oil rigs in the world today is half the number in 1981. Employment in the oil industry has fallen from 1.65 million in 1982 to 641,000 today, and continues to decline. Oil comes gushing from oil wells because it is under pressure. As the oil is removed from the ground, the pressure is released and the remaining oil becomes increasingly expensive and energy intensive to remove from the ground. The "reserves" claimed by oil producers are largely an illusion and will never see the light of day. In fact, some reported oil reserves are fraudulent overestimates intended to boost share prices. For their own reasons, even OPEC countries grossly inflate oil reserve estimates. According to a Swedish study done by a team from the University of Uppsala, recoverable world oil reserves are 80% less than previously thought. Oil production peaks: Libya 1970 So far, a total 51 oil-producing countries have passed their peak oil production. Only 16 oil producing countries have not yet peaked. Even Saudi Arabia may have already peaked. We will know soon. All major regions of the world except Africa have passed their peak oil production. A decade ago it was thought that the Caspian region held 350 billion barrels of oil. This estimate has since been downgraded to 40 billion barrels of heavy sour oil. At some point, oil producing countries will start saving oil for their own people. Natural gas production peaks: U.S. 1973 In 2004, Canada's reserves of natural gas totaled 56 trillion cubic feet. American consumption of natural gas is more than 22 trillion cubic feet per year. It takes the energy of two barrels of oil to obtain three barrels of oil from Canada's tar sands. This energy is being provided by natural gas. The process also uses 2.5 - 4 barrels of fresh water to produce one barrel of bitumen (tar), and generates horrendous pollution. The world's largest oil fields are ALL over 40 years old. 80% of the oil produced today comes from fields found more than 30 years ago. The United States uses 25 barrels of oil per person per year, compared to 12 in Western Europe, two in China, and one in India. Oil provides 90% of the energy used for transportation. As gasoline prices rise, hydrogen generated by wind power will soon be competitive. If the cost of defending oil shipments from the middle east was added to the price of gasoline, then hydrogen would be competitive now. The military cost of protecting pipelines and tanker routes, borne mainly by U.S. taxpayers, is around $15 to $20 per barrel. This does not include the eventual total cost of the U.S. invasion of Iraq which, according to the Congressional Budget Office, is scheduled to cost $2.7 trillion by 2017. And there is Afghanistan... The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan double when hidden costs are included. These hidden costs are interest on debt incurred to pay for the wars, the cost of treating wounded veterans, and the higher cost of oil. The war in Iraq is all about oil: Then there is the multi-trillion dollar cost of global warming and climate change caused by burning hydrocarbons. Biodiesel from algae, 328 page government report. Legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens has a plan. Commercial electrolyzers can achieve electricity to hydrogen conversion above 75%. A fuel cell is electrolysis in reverse, combining hydrogen and oxygen to create water and electricity. The reaction happens spontaneously in the presence of a catalyst. Fuel cells are 50% - 60% efficient at converting hydrogen back to electricity. However, they use 30% of this electricity to operate peripheral devices such as pumps and compressors associated with the fuel cell itself. The net result is 30% - 40% efficiency. Internal combustion engines are about 17% efficient, and cost only $30 per kilowatt. A gas turbine is about 33% efficient. Hydrogen powered hybrid electric cars have a greater range than battery electric cars and are faster to refuel. An automobile requires 10 to 20 kilowatts A home requires 1 to 15 kilowatts. Fuel cells presently cost $3,000 - $4,000 per kilowatt and will operate for up to 40,000 hours continuously under constant load & temperature. However, this is reduced to 4,000 hours of intermittent operation under variable load & temperature. The price should come down with mass production, but longevity is an issue. A hydrogen powered hybrid car equipped with batteries and a small gas turbine would be more economical, last longer, and use existing technology. In our opinion, fuel cells are a red herring, a delaying tactic to promote continued use of petrochemicals. Fuel cells that require hydrocarbons as their source of hydrogen energy are not useful except in the very short term, because the supply of hydrocarbons is limited. Our favorite alternative fuel is compressed air. Food travels an average of 1,300 miles to reach a North American dinner plate. This may not be possible as global petroleum supplies run out. Everyone would benefit from the "four-season harvest" so that locally grown food is available all through the year. Farm and garden production can be maximized using Sonic Bloom. Sprouts are fresh produce that everyone can make in the kitchen. Given that rising fuel prices may make food production and delivery uncertain, perhaps this would be a good time for every home to create a two year stockpile of dried beans, legumes, grains, tinned food, etc. If you buy this dried food in small plastic wrapped packages and store them in plastic bins, they should be safe from spoilage, rodents and insects. The current price of solar cells is about $5 per watt or $5,000 per kilowatt. However, unlike fuel cells that need hydrogen fuel, sunlight is free. The price of solar cells has declined 95% since the early 1970s, and continues to decline. Enough sunlight hits the roof of the average house to generate all the electricity that the house requires. The following individuals have solar powered off-the-grid homes: India is a world leader in the utilization of photovoltaics. High Voltage Alternating Current electrical transmission lines lose 5% - 8% of the electricity they carry. High Voltage Direct Current transmission lines lose as little as 4% over 1,000 kilometers, plus they do not generate health-damaging effects for people who live nearby. Nuclear energy has many hidden costs from: Thorium fueled nuclear reactors are less expensive, will not melt down, produce less radioactive waste, and do not produce weapons grade material. Y2K was a non-event only because government and industry thoroughly prepared for it over a period of five to ten years. There are no preparations being made for the end of the petrochemical era, other than preparations for resource wars. Crises are problems that have been ignored too long. "All great crises were ignored until it became too late to do anything about it." - Matthew Simmons In 1972 the Club of Rome (COR) published The Limits to Growth which predicted a mass die-off of the human race if certain preventive measures were not taken. "In hindsight, the COR turned out to be right. We simply wasted 30 important years by ignoring this work." - Matthew Simmons To wait for the government to act is suicidal. Ordinary people must act now if there is to be any hope for humanity. Two recent examples of societies without enough oil are North Korea and Cuba. The North Koreans starved. The Cubans switched to bicycles and organic agriculture. Leadership makes all the difference. Why would an oil company want to sell a barrel of oil for $60, when in a few years it will be worth $200 (or $2000)? Oil companies WANT this to happen, and to the extent they control the government, nothing will be done to prevent it. Americans will always do the right thing. After they've exhausted all the alternatives. “There is no additional supply.” "This much is certain: no initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year." - Kenneth Deffeyes, page 149. "The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years." - Kenneth Deffeyes, page 1. "There are plenty of energy sources other than fossil fuels. Running out of energy in the long run is not the problem. The bind comes during the next 10 years: getting over our dependence on crude oil." - Kenneth Deffeyes, page 176. The movie "End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream" is now available for purchase on DVD. Watch the movie A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash Project Censored comments on Peak Oil and Media and Government Ignore Dwindling Oil Supplies. Peak oil may be bad for the environment if it leads to increased use of coal and other high carbon fuels. Earth near global warming tipping points?
Rooftop wind turbines: Calculate the solar energy available at your location worldwide. Solar energy in Canada. Green Roofs: Building for the future. Finavera Renewables Inc. (FVR) has a technology using ocean waves to generate electricity. List of alternative energy stocks. Thorium fueled nuclear reactors are less expensive, will not melt down, produce less radioactive waste, and do not produce weapons grade material. Polywell fusion technology is also worth trying. The cost to set up a demonstration reactor is minimal. Greatness requires a measure of self-sufficiency. The interdependence fostered by trade is fine up to a point, but to stake one's life on it and to give up self-sufficiency for the essentials of life makes one vulnerable and is a sign of weakness. This principle applies to all levels of society from individuals to nations.
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Chart courtesy of ASPO - Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas newsletter #100 April 2009.
Introduction Global oil production is peaking. We are at the top of the "bell curve" for global oil production. It is expected we will start sliding down the backside of the bell curve starting about 2008. The decline in oil production will be precipitous and humanity is about to go over a cliff. By 2030, global oil production is predicted to be reduced by about a third, with the decline still continuing after. Do an Internet search for "peak oil" or "oil production peak" and see for yourself. We will know all of this for certain when we have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. However, oil experts are shouting from the rooftops now, if anyone will listen. Unless alternative sources of energy such as wind, solar, geothermal, and biodiesel from algae are developed very soon, it will not be possible to develop them at all because production and transportation at this time depend on oil. If we continue on our present course, the human population on the planet will experience a significant die-off while oil production falls. Biologists looking at parallels in nature and human history suggest that there is a balance between populations and their energy base. When the population exceeds their energy base, the population will decline until balance is restored. For humanity without oil and without a replacement for oil, the decline in population may be about 90%, though total extinction is a real possibility. The only hope for the bulk of mankind to survive is to develop alternatives to oil now, before oil begins to decline. As a fuel for cars, battery electricity and compressed air are practical possibilities. A car is being developed in France that can go 300 kilometers (180 miles) on a tank of compressed air. It takes only $2 of electricity to fill the tank. The car has an onboard air compressor, so all you need to do is plug in the car each night and you can drive all day. Alternatively, "filling stations" can offer a quick recharge from large compressed air tanks. Plug-in hybrid cars with a battery and super-capacitor should be on the market by 2010. Biodiesel can be made economically in great quantities from fast growing algae. Algae can also be a source of jet fuel. Electricity for the power grid can be provided by wind, solar and geothermal. All of these can be applied on a small scale to generate heat and power for homes and businesses. The enormous amount of energy needed for national electrical grids can be supplied cost-effectively by wind turbines, thermal solar and geothermal. The installation of millions of wind turbines around the world and thermal solar systems in deserts could replace the loss of energy from the decline in hydrocarbons. Variations in the amount of wind in local areas can be offset by having grid-connected wind turbines widely distributed, so that the amount of wind averages out. Also, there is now an economical battery called a "flow battery" that can store wind and solar power for when it is needed. By these means, wind and solar become reliable sources of electrical power. Plus, there are many places in the world where heat in the earth comes close to the surface. Turbines powered by steam from these hot spots could economically provide all the electricity the world needs many times over. Here is a readily available replacement for all the hydrocarbons presently being burned. As oil production falls and global consumption continues to climb, oil prices will rise. Who knows how high the price will go? It will be bid up internationally. Everything that depends on oil will also go up in price. Anyone who wants to implement alternatives would be well advised to do it soon, while the price of oil is affordable. If we wait, not only will the cost be higher, but the money available will be less because the global economy will begin to contract, unemployment will soar, government revenues will decline, etc. It would be good for those who can see what is happening to let others know. Only collective action now can save the situation.
The Details The United States has 5% of the world's population and uses 25% of the world's oil. China's oil consumption (7.6% of global consumption) has now passed Japan (7.4%), making China the world's #2 oil consuming nation. Oil consumption is increasing in all areas of the world, but the increase is most rapid in the developing countries. World oil demand since 1988 has increased 25%, from 64.95 million barrels per day (b/d) to 82.15 million b/d. In these sixteen years, European consumption is up 16%, US consumption up 18%, Japan's up 25%, and China's up 175%. There are insufficient hydrocarbons in the world for the entire population of the world to rise to the American level of consumption. World oil production per capita peaked in 1979 and has been declining since then. With rising global demand for hydrocarbons and a supply that has stopped increasing, demand is exceeded supply resulting in rising prices. In 1956, Dr. King Hubbert predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Hubbert was widely criticized by oil experts and economists, but in 1971 Hubbert's prediction came true. U.S. oil production has declined 40% since 1971. Hubbert's methods of oil reserve analysis predict that the peak in global oil production is occurring NOW. At the same time, global demand for oil is growing rapidly. Shortages and rising prices are inevitable. Even a global recession will only postpone the approaching shortage of oil. In 1995, Petroconsultants Pty. Ltd., a respected oil industry consulting firm, released a report called, 'World Oil Supply 1930-2050'. This report cost $32,000 per copy and predicted global oil production would peak around the year 2000.
In fact, worldwide conventional oil production did peak in 2000 and the years that followed. We are on a bumpy plateau, the top of the bell curve for global oil production. People will become more aware of this as we slide down the far side of the bell curve. One of the reasons oil production will decline precipitously is because the size of oil reserves around the world have been overestimated. The "value" of oil companies is directly related to the size of their reserves, so there is an advantage to them to exaggerate these estimates. OPEC countries have an agreement that limits their export quotas of oil in proportion to their reserves, so they also have an incentive to inflate their reserve estimates. Plus, there is a big difference between total reserves in the ground and reserves that may be ultimately recoverable. Oil initially is very easy to extract because it is under pressure and flows to the surface automatically. However, as the oil flows, the pressure is reduced and the oil becomes increasingly difficult to extract. When oil is first pumped from a well, it can take the energy of one barrel of oil to get 100 barrels of oil from the ground. This is called the Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) or Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI). Today on average it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to get ten barrels of oil from the ground. When it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to get one barrel of oil from the ground then the Energy Profit is zero and there ceases to be any benefit from the activity. (When the Energy Profit Ratio is 1/1 = 1, then the Energy Profit is zero.) According to a Swedish study done by a team from the University of Uppsala, ultimately recoverable world oil reserves are 80% less than previously thought. When examining alternatives to conventional oil, it is important to think not just in terms of money, but in terms of energy in versus energy out. Canada's tar sands, for example, require 7 or more barrels of water plus the energy of two barrels of oil to obtain three barrels of oil (the water ends up polluted in holding ponds that may eventually be as large as Lake Ontario). Coal is experiencing declining efficiency as a source of energy. At one time coal had an EPR of over 50, but has since fallen to an EPR of 8. The EPR of coal is expected to turn negative by 2030. Coal, natural gas and uranium have their own "Hubbert" curves. Nuclear energy is surprisingly inefficient when you include ALL the costs associated with nuclear power plants. The Energy Profit of nuclear energy is barely above zero. Costs often ignored when considering nuclear power include: radiation, accidents, production of bomb material, vulnerability to terrorist attacks, no liability insurance, and storage of radioactive waste for many thousands of years. Sources of the world's energy:
The dependency on hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas, coal) indicated by the above table is the result of complacency. Everyone knows that hydrocarbons are a finite resource and will run out one day. However, the general belief is that we have at least two or three decades before this event happens. The surprise is that on a planetary scale conventional oil may be peaking NOW, and that problems begin NOW when production levels off and then starts to decline. The growth of the world economy needs energy, and if oil is peaking then the energy to grow can no longer come from oil. Unless alternatives to oil are developed, the world economy will stall and then contract in step with declining oil supplies. In truth, the population of the planet is faced with an emergency unlike any world war, plague or other disaster in its experience. We can fight like rats over a declining resource until no oil and no people are left, or we can work together on a planetary scale to usher in a new post-hydrocarbon era of peace and prosperity for all.
There are those who would take a "wait and see" attitude before taking action. This is a formula for disaster, because oil is needed for all production, including the production of wind turbines, solar cells and other potential alternatives to oil. Delay makes the transition increasingly difficult. The tiny 1% of total energy from "other" highlights the neglect by governments unduly influenced by big oil companies. This MUST change NOW! The actual peak for oil production will be known for certain after the fact. Politicians who wait for this certainty are gambling with the lives of their people and deserve to starve and freeze in the dark with them. Why would anyone want to take this risk? For the people of each country, there is no downside from beginning to create a post-hydrocarbon era now. Even for the big oil companies, there is no longer any risk of loss by the development of competing sources of energy. The oil companies have sold their oil and made their profits. Their industry is now beginning its inevitable decline. Watch the newspapers and you will see that the oil companies are already beginning to consolidate and sell their assets. Employment in the oil industry has declined from about 1.6 million people to just over 600,000 in the last 20 years. The number of operating drilling rigs has dropped by half during that time. Since 2001, oil companies have spent more money exploring for oil than they have earned in new oil discovered.
Newer solar devices such as thin film panels and concentrating systems can have an Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) as high as 15. Solar thermal generating towers in the desert are even more efficient. See USA solar energy map. Large wind turbines can have an EPR as high as 50. The EPR of wind, solar and geothermal vary greatly by location. However, given that the EPR of wind, solar and geothermal can be so much higher than the EPR of oil or coal, it makes sense to invest available resources in favorable locations for wind, solar and geothermal rather than limiting ourselves to exploring for more oil or digging out more coal. The best location for solar is in deserts, both because the amount of sunshine is maximum and also because the land is not otherwise being used for agriculture. Solar roofs are also a productive use of space, generating both electricity and hot water. The EPR of biodiesel made from algae when mass produced will probably be around 10, though it could be higher as superior production methods evolve. Spending billions of dollars to harvest dirty oil from tar sands at an EPR of 1.5 does not make much sense when compared to obtaining clean oil from algae. Plus, biodiesel offers other advantages such as no emission of greenhouse gasses, creation of local employment, and improved balance of payments for the nation. The present importation of oil by the United States is causing the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. We suggest that biodiesel, geothermal, wind and solar energy are the best way forward. However, safer and cheaper nuclear reactors such as the Gem*Star reactor by ADNA corporation may also play a role. The molten salt Gem*Star reactor is powered by a particle accelerator, so it does not require enriched uranium. It can burn U-238, thorium or even spent fuel from other reactors. Radioactive waste is reduced 90%. Turning off the particle accelerator shuts down the reactor. Do an internet search to learn more. We would also point out that any system of generating electricity that creates steam could double as a desalination plant. Wind energy is cheaper than electricity generated by coal or conventional nuclear energy. Liquid natural gas emits almost as much greenhouse gasses as coal. Nextera (formerly called Florida Power and Light) has invested $10 billion in wind power since 2001, and expects to invest heavily in solar power in the coming years. 20% of its electricity comes from wind and solar. By investing wind, solar, natural gas and nuclear, Nextera has reduced CO2 emissions by 30% while keeping electricity prices 19% below the national average. The large FloDesign wind turbine generates more power at all wind speeds than conventional large wind turbines. The small WindTamer produces twice the electricity compared to similarly sized small wind turbines due to its "diffuser" that creates a vacuum behind the blades. Both of these designs offer increased safety, silent operation, and greater reliability. A rough calculation suggests that, combined with energy conservation, one or two 5 megawatt wind turbines per square kilometer would be sufficient to replace the 40% of our total energy consumption that comes from oil. At least this is a starting point. Wind turbines generate electricity only when the wind is blowing. By connecting wind turbines to the electrical grid, fluctuations in the amount of wind in local areas averages out. By this means, wind becomes a reliable source of energy. Also, there is a new kind of battery that can economically store electricity for when it is needed. This new battery is called a "flow battery".
"Maps of European wind conditions reveal that the continent’s present electric power consumption could be supplied 100-fold with onshore installations alone; offshore installations add enormous additional capacity...By 2003 the installed capacity already reached 39 GW." - Rudolf Rechsteiner (Swiss MP) Ground source heat pumps for heating and cooling buildings use the constant (approximately 55°F) temperature of the surface of the earth. However, the deeper you go the warmer the earth becomes. 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 miles down the earth is hot enough to boil water and create super-heated steam. This could be a source of virtually unlimited clean and economical electrical energy and hot water for every location on earth. Oil companies know how to drill that deep. A study by MIT has concluded there are no technical barriers. Oil companies have formed a consortium called GeoPOS (Geo-Power in the Oil Sands) to develop this technology as a source of energy to extract oil from Canada's tar sands. There are many places in the world where high temperatures in the earth come close to the surface. Turbines powered by steam from these 400°F hot spots could economically provide all the electricity the world needs many times over. Companies such as Ormat Technologies (ORA) and U.S. Geothermal (UGTH) are already seeking out and developing these hot spots. Iceland generates much of its electricity from geothermal energy. See maps of Europe, U.S.A. and North America geothermal resources. Razer Technologies uses a binary system that can generate electricity from lower earth temperatures. Biofuel from algae is an economical source of liquid fuels.
Algae is grown in shallow ponds, so it does not require topsoil. Algae can be grown in deserts and arid lands, so it need not displace food crops. Algea will grow in fresh water, salt water or brackish water. Algae is about 50% efficient at converting the sun's energy to plant mass, so algae is a form of solar energy. Algae can yield from one thousand to more than fifteen thousand gallons of fuel per acre (depending on triglyceride content), making it the highest yielding feedstock for biodiesel. Algae can be used to create a variety of products including biodiesel, ethanol, jet fuel, syngas, high-protein animal feeds, agricultural fertilizers, biopolymers (plastic), and glycerin. The amount of land required is so small that the United States could make all the fuel it requires many times over from algae. According to the Hawaiian company HR BioPetroleum "algae oil is projected to be produced at around US$50-$90 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe)... Longer term, with further increases in algae productivity, algae-to-oil production cost is expected to fall to around US$30-$50 per boe". Algae is the original source of most of the oil hidden within the earth's crust. Oil made from algae grown today is carbon neutral because its carbon comes from carbon dioxide taken from the atmosphere. Search the Internet for "algae biodiesel" to learn more about oil from algae. Here is a photo of Texas algae farm owned by PetroSun Inc. (PSUD) Watch the 2 minute video by GreenStar Products (GSPI) and the 3 minute video by Solazyme. The Solazyme process uses plant residues (corn stover, switch grass, wood chips, sugar cane, etc.) to feed the algae. Other companies use sewage sludge, smoke stack emissions, and various waste materials. Watch the 27 minute interview of Glen Kertz, CEO of Valcent Products (VCTPF), on algae fuel. Here is an interesting article on algae fuel, and here are more articles 1, 2. Several algae biofuel videos are available to view at YouTube.com. Origin Oil has sold its first continuous flow algae to oil system (2010). Department of Energy grant 1. High tech enclosed systems to grow algae can cost $1 million per acre, whereas open pond systems can cost less than 5% of that amount. At today's fuel prices algae biodiesel from both types of systems should be highly profitable. GreenStar Products, Inc. has developed a Hybrid Algae Production System (HAPS) that gains many of the benefits of an enclosed system while retaining the low cost of open pond systems. GreenStar advanced diesel refining. GreenStar Products, Inc. is looking for joint venture partners around the world to develop algae biodiesel facilities using technology provided by GreenStar. A process called "ultrasonic extraction" is used to remove oil from the algae. The ultrasound creates cavitations that crack the algae cell wall. (See Cavitation Technologies). Do an Internet search for "ultrasonic extraction algae" to learn more. The basic process of making biodiesel from vegetable oil is explained at www.fuelmeister.com. A farm or community scale biodiesel manufacturing system is available from Biodiesel Solutions. Making biodiesel from vegetable oil produces glycerin as a waste product. New Generation Biofuels can make biofuel out of glycerin, and can also make biofuel out of vegetable oils without generating glycerin as a waste product.
Biodiesel refineries all over the world are struggling due to the high cost of feedstock (soybeans, etc.) These refineries would do well to consider establishing an algae farm nearby. Greenshift has patented a means to gain two fuels from corn. Corn ethanol is a popular "alternative" fuel today, but corn is not a very good source of biofuel. Cellulosic ethanol uses enzymes or acid to break down cellulose into simple sugars, which are then fermented to produce ethanol. This process could break down corn stocks and straw, allowing the corn and grain to be used as food. It could also break down wood chips, waste paper, switch grass and other sources of cellulose. There is so much cellulose available that this developing technology has the potential reduce American oil imports by up to 80%. The ability to use crop residues would provide a new source of revenue to farmers. Flex-fuel cars can run on E85 which is a mixture of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. It costs only $200 to convert a car to flex-fuel. In Brazil, flexible fuel cars are designed to run on any mix of alcohol and gasoline, including 100% alcohol. The ecological danger hidden in this process is that scientists and companies will be too greedy and careless. See Destruction of All Plant Life on Earth. Instead of breeding one bug to "do it all", the process needs to be done in stages so that when the bacteria or fungi doing each stage inevitably escape into the environment, all plant life on earth is not threatened. However, the most productive source of cellulose is algae. Algae is a prolific source of cellulose, simple sugars and triglycerides (oil). The bulk of the fuel value of algae comes from the oil it contains. This is why we suggest that ethanol will be a byproduct of biodiesel production from algae, with the main liquid fuel of the future being biodiesel. Another possible fuel for vehicles is ammonia (NH3) which has a higher energy density than liquid hydrogen. Ammonia today is generally made from natural gas and is used mostly in fertilizers. However, ammonia can also be made by combining nitrogen from the air with hydrogen from water. "Solid state ammonia production" offers the potential for cost effective creation of ammonia from these non-hydrocarbon sources. Ammonia and hydrogen are the only two fuels that do not contain carbon and therefore do not produce carbon dioxide when burned. Replacing oil will require a mix of alternatives. Europeans use half the energy per capita compared to North Americans, for a comparable standard of living. Most new cars sold in Europe today are powered by clean burning diesel engines. Diesel engines are 40% more efficient than gasoline engines. This illustrates the potential for energy conservation in North America. Vehicles can be propelled by compressed air, batteries, hydrogen, biodiesel, etc. However, this choice will be made by the end user. The main task at hand is to develop primary sources of energy. Compressed air, batteries, and hydrogen are energy carriers or storage devices, they are not a source of energy. Wind power, solar power, biodiesel, and geothermal energy are primary sources of energy. The economic benefits from becoming self-sufficient for energy are substantial. Why import oil and send the nation's wealth overseas when all the energy needed is readily available at home? Development of wind energy creates five times more jobs than an equal investment in nuclear energy. A new profession of skilled workers retrofitting homes and businesses for energy independence and increased energy efficiency would create many thousands of jobs that could not easily be "outsourced" to developing countries. Becoming self-sufficient for energy will make the economy less vulnerable to disruptions in oil supply and allow the nation to abstain from "oil wars." Widely distributed energy supplies give the economy resilience in the face of adverse weather, terrorist attacks, and other disruptions. Increased efficiency in business and industry would make the economy more competitive internationally. The pending collapse of global petrochemical supply is one of the primary motivations behind the population "control" movement that is urgently striving to reduce global human population levels by every means available. We must prove their assumptions wrong by demonstrating that a high consumption of petrochemicals is not necessary for modern civilization or the present world population is in for a very bad time, either through unpreparedness for the collapse of energy supplies, or at the hands of those who see and fear this collapse on the horizon. It has been suggested that in the absence of oil, the world will be able to feed only about 2 billion people. "My father rode a camel, I drive a car, my son rides in a jet airplane -- his son will ride a camel." - Saudi saying. We must create a post petroleum global economy and society now. This is a project that everyone can participate in. Use your creativity! Your survival and the survival of billions of other people may depend on it very soon. "Think globally and act locally."
Remaining petrochemicals should be used as a feedstock for the plastics industry and other uses rather than burned for its energy. "Crude oil is much too valuable to be burned as fuel...In the long run, the eventual use for oil will be for manufacturing useful organic chemicals." - Kenneth Deffeyes, Ph.D. Whenever I see a wind turbine I get a little thrill. I stop and watch it with a sense of wonder. A wind turbine is a beautiful thing. Moreover, unlike the huge cost overruns repeatedly incurred by the nuclear industry, wind turbines are a simple commodity. The costs are known. Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases. Moreover, if one breaks the rest continue to operate. There is always wind blowing somewhere. Having wind turbines everywhere ensures that power is constantly being generated 24/7. As oil supplies fall and demand rises, there will be a steadily growing gap between supply and demand that must be filled by alternatives if the global economy is to avoid collapse. See this chart produced by ExxonMobil in February 2004 highlighting the gap. "By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves." - Dick Cheney, 1999. "We must face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made by our own initiative in a planned way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by inexorable laws of nature." - Jimmy Carter.
Given time to adapt, we can collectively respond to any challenge. Delays in starting adaptation to a post-petroleum world will make the transition increasingly more difficult. If you wait until oil runs short, EVERYTHING will cost more, including alternative sources of energy, because at the present time everything is made and transported with petrochemicals. This means that "market signals" in the form of rapidly rising oil prices and shortages will come too late. If you want to build a post-petroleum economy you need to do it while there is still enough oil. This means NOW. In a sense, the ability of humanity to develop a post-petroleum economy before oil runs out is a test of its intelligence, and those who fail will not survive. "The options before us are crystal clear. Down one road, the one we're now on, lies a cascading series of oil and water wars, climate disasters and ecological devastation. Down the other lies a turn toward peaceful resolution of conflicts, energy conservation, efficiency and a clean energy revolution, and social and economic justice. Another world is possible, but for it to come about another US is necessary." - Ted Glick "I would therefore like to address the men and women of America: You belong to the most powerful nation on Earth, an immensely wealthy country, populated by people who want to live their lives with compassion and integrity. You have a great and noble task ahead of you. Each of you can be as powerful as the most powerful person who ever lived. If you or your child were threatened with a lethal disease, you would do everything in your power to save that life. This is the analogy that you must now apply to the planet and in particular to your country. America must rise to its full moral and spiritual height to reach its intended destiny - the nation that saved the world." - Helen Caldicott "We make a living by what we get. For more information look up "peak oil" on the Internet. Also see: Websites www.dieoff.com Books Campbell, C.J., The Coming Oil Crisis, Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd., 2004. Darley, Julian, High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis, Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 2004. Deffeyes, Kenneth, Hubberts Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press, 2001. Gever, John, et al, Beyond Oil, The Threat To Food and Fuel In the Coming Decades, University Press of Colorado, 1991. Goodstein, David, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, W.W. Norton & Company, February 2004. Heinberg, Richard, The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, New Society Publishers, 2003. Michael Klare, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, Owl Books, New York, 2002. Michael Klare, Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency, Metropolitan Books, New York, 2004. Savinar, Matt, The Oil Age is Over, Morris Publishing, Kearney, NE, 2004. Available from www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. Tainter, Joseph, et al, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Cambridge University Press, 1990. Articles Civilization to End, Does Anybody Care? "Unfortunately, before that happens, we should first endure the coming “population correction” unlike anything in the history of mankind." World Scientists' Warning to Humanity from the Union of Concerned Scientists, 1992. The Greatest Story Never Told? "As the Baker Institute for Public Policy stated in a report commissioned by Dick Cheney's Energy Policy Development Group, "every American recession since the late 1940s has been preceded by spikes in oil prices". This is because the world economy -- from industrial production, to transportation, to our very way of life -- is driven by cheap oil." Bush-Cheney Energy Strategy: Procuring the Rest of the World's Oil "In the end, Bush made a clear decision regarding future U.S. energy behavior. Knowing that nothing can reverse the long-term decline in domestic oil production, and unwilling to curb the country's ever-growing thirst for petroleum products, he elected to continue down the existing path of ever-increasing dependence on foreign oil...The Cheney report is very guarded about the amount of foreign oil that will be required. The only clue provided by the report is a chart of net U.S. oil consumption and production over time. According to this illustration, domestic oil field production will decline from about 8.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2002 to 7.0 mbd in 2020, while consumption will jump from 19.5 mbd to 25.5 mbd. That suggests imports or other sources of petroleum, such as natural gas liquids, will have to rise from 11 mbd to 18.5 mbd. Most of the recommendations in Chapter 8 of the NEP are aimed at procuring this 7.5 mbd increment, equivalent to the total oil consumed by China and India." Revealing Statements from a Bush Insider about Peak Oil and Natural Gas Depletion "....I think basically that now, that peaking of oil will never be accurately predicted until after the fact. But the event will occur, and my analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away. If it turns out I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, the unforeseen consequences are devastating." The End of Cheap Oil? "Third and most important, conventional wisdom erroneously assumes that the last bucket of oil can be pumped from the ground just as quickly as the barrels of oil gushing from wells today. In fact, the rate at which any well—or any country—can produce oil always rises to a maximum and then, when about half the oil is gone, begins falling gradually back to zero." Colin Campbell on Oil "Oil from coal, "shale," tar sands, heavy oil -- the resource is very large, but extraction rate is low and costly, sometimes giving negative net energy." Why Societies Collapse "In trying to understand the collapses of ancient societies, I quickly realized that it’s not enough to look at the inadvertent impact of humans on their environment. It’s usually more complicated. Instead I’ve arrived at a checklist of five things that I look at to understand the collapses of societies, and in some cases all five of these things are operating. Usually several of them are." Plan Now for a World Without Oil "The conclusion is clear: if we do not immediately plan to make the switch to renewable energy - faster, and backed by far greater investment than currently envisaged - then civilization faces the sharpest and perhaps most violent dislocation in recent history." Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil "It is increasingly clear that the US occupation of Iraq is about control of global oil resources. Control, however, in a situation where world oil supplies are far more limited than most of the world has been led to believe. If the following is accurate, the Iraq war is but the first in a major battle over global energy resources, a battle which will be more intense than any oil war to date." Editor's note: In the coming global oil wars, Islamic Fundamentalism is an American weapon aimed at Russia, China and India. The Struggle Over Iraqi Oil: Eyes Eternally on the Prize "The date when the struggle for Iraqi oil began is less critical than our ability to trace the ever-growing willingness to use 'any means necessary' to control such a 'vital prize' into the present," writes Michael Schwartz. "We know, for example, that before and after he ascended to the vice-presidency, Dick Cheney has had his eye squarely on the prize."
Paris Peak Oil Conference Reveals Deepening Crisis Simmons observed that the Middle East was still the "Promised Land," and that eighty-five per cent of all Middle Eastern oil was in a golden triangle running from Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, through Iran to the United Arab Emirates, then west through Saudi Arabia's central oil fields, then northwards and back up to Kirkuk. In Simmons' analysis, World Oil and Gas Running Out "The world's oil reserves are up to 80 percent less than predicted, a team from Sweden's University of Uppsala says." - October 2003. Oil Prices and Recession "This is one of the major causes of disinformation regarding energy issues. The U.S. government relies on the EIA for all of its energy information. Yet the EIA, a division of the Department of Energy, has admitted that it reverse-engineers its studies. "These adjustments to the USGS and MMS estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels," stated the EIA in a report titled, "Annual Energy Outlook 1998 with Projections to 2020." This means that the EIA first looks at projected figures for demand, then juggles reserve and production figures to meet demand! Likewise, USGS reports can no longer be trusted either since the agency's about face in 2000. Prior to 2000, the USGS was talking about oil depletion and the cross-over event between demand and supply. In 2000, however, the agency published a rosy report stating there would be abundant oil for many decades. Geologists working for the USGS have stated off the record that they do not trust USGS oil data." Interview with Dr. Colin Campbell "You know, I thought, is it possible that a responsible organization of that kind could be quite so misguided and quite so far from the reality of things. But on second thoughts I realized they are deliberately trying to mislead people as much as possible. And perhaps that’s a very good thing that they do, because the reality is such a monumental effect. I mean the stock market crashes, the currencies go to hell, and probably the whole government system is put in threat, if the truth is to be revealed." Interview with Matthew Simmons "I have for years described two camps: the economists who told us that technology would always produce new supply and the pessimists or Cassandras who told us that peak was coming in maybe fifteen or twenty years. We may be finding out that we went over the peak in 2000. That makes both camps wrong. Over the last year, I have obtained and closely examined more than 100 very technical production reports from Saudi Arabia. What I glean from examining the data is that it is very likely that Saudi Arabia, already a debtor nation, has very likely gone over its Peak. If that is true, then it is a certainty that planet earth has passed its peak of production." Editor's note: There is growing evidence that conventional oil has peaked. If you add non-conventional oil (tar sands, deepwater, polar, etc) the total oil production for the planet is expected to peak by 2011. More important, however, is demand for oil exceeding supply starting about 2005. This is when prices must start rising to hold demand down to the level that can actually be supplied. Mankind is passing from one milestone to the next, and time is running out for the development of alternatives. Strategic Significance of America's Oil Shale Resource "In 2002, the United States consumed 19.8 MMBbl/d...For the reference case, U.S. demand is expected to reach 29.2 MMBbl/d by the year 2025, of which 19.8 MMBbl/d will be imported...The analysis assumes that shale oil production begins in 2011 with initial production of 0.2 MMBbl/d and reaches an aggressive goal of 2 MMBbl/d by 2020." This 2004 report by the Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves acknowledges the problem of Peak Oil. The Perfect Storm That's About To Hit "So we have all the conditions coming together to create the perfect economic storm: record oil prices triggering a restriction in US economic growth and an increase in the federal budget deficit, accompanied by further erosion in the value of the dollar - with increased budget deficits and the diminished value of the dollar leading in turn to higher interest rates to convince foreign investors to lend the US additional money, followed by a further retraction of the US economy as rising interest rates lead to a drop in domestic investment and consumption. The cascade of events touches off a tsunami that engulfs the rest of the global economy, submerging the world in deep recession...The solution, in the long run, is to wean the world off its dependency on oil." Editor's note: Read more about the coming perfect storm and impending collapse of the U.S. economy. The U.S. military budget is the largest in the world and needs a strong economy to support it. For its own survival, the U.S. military should do whatever it can to assist the people of the United States in their transition to a post-petroleum economy. It is time to release Mr. Meyer's invention to the world. Ten Steps to a Sustainable Energy Future "Correctly evaluating future developments requires proper tools for measuring inputs and outputs. With rising cost of fossil fuels the Energy-Return-On-Energy-Investment (EROEI) is such a tool. EROEI reveals the net energy derived from a project after deducting from the project’s estimated life-time output all costs of planning, construction, fuels, ongoing operation and decommissioning." Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy "This means that only 0.6 acres of farmland would be available to grow food for each American in 2050, as opposed to the 1.8 acres per capita available today. At least 1.2 acres per person is required in order to maintain current American dietary standards." How Cheaply We Could Live "There is now a large and convincing literature on the fact that industrial-affluent-consumer society is grossly unsustainable. Rich world “living standards” and levels of production and consumption are far higher than can be kept up for long...It would be quite possible for us to live well on extremely low rates of resource consumption and monetary income…if we were prepared to cooperate, use alternative technologies, develop small and highly self-sufficient local economies..." What is Canada's Situation? "...the days of Albertan conventional oil are closing...There are a couple of oil fields in the MacKenzie Delta, some offshore, that have a potential, but it’s mainly gas...Hibernia is...probably half the size of the North Sea or less. So it’s no big thing...Canada has really very limited future potential for conventional oil but has huge amounts of tar sands...It is important, by all means, to alleviate the subsequent decline, but very little impact on peak itself." Natural Gas Crisis "NG production in the United States and Canada has fallen off the cliff. The only reason why this cliff has not become readily apparent is that the NG industry has been bringing new fields online in a frantic effort to keep production levels from dropping too rapidly. Unfortunately, very few of the new plays have high production levels, and most of them play out very quickly. In effect, NG production is running faster and faster in an effort simply to stay in place, while demand is leaving it far behind." Natural Gas Prices "Prices are not expected to come down until new major gas pipelines are built connecting new gas fields in Alaska and the Northwest Territories. That is at least 6 years away. Recent reports however suggest that virtually all of this northern gas will be used in to extract oil from the tar sands in Northern Alberta." The Petroleum Plateau "The fact that we have arrived at an energy plateau means that two centuries of energy growth are at an end, but the century of decline has not yet begun. We are in a place betwixt and between, neither this nor that. This is a unique period that brings unique opportunities and challenges; it is a temporal terrain whose navigation will determine whether our path down the energy curve is quick and disastrous, or measured and deliberate." Five Fundamental Errors "The sudden -- and surprising -- end of the fossil fuel age will stun everyone -- and kill billions. Once the truth is told about gas and oil (it's just a matter of time), your life will change forever. Envision a world where freezing, starving people burn everything combustible -- everything from forests (releasing CO2; destroying topsoil and species); to garbage dumps (releasing dioxins, PCBs, and heavy metals); to people (by waging nuclear, biological, chemical, and conventional war); and you have seen the future. Envision a world utterly destroyed by a lethal education." A Means of Control "Economists are trained to believe that "money" is to the economy what "energy" is to the physical world. This leads them to believe that whatever is "economically" possible is "physically" possible too. What economists fail to realize is that the economy is a subsystem of the physical system, and thus constrained by universal physical laws that they have not studied." Blood, Oil, Guns and Bullets "Terror, invasion, occupation and militarization are hallmarks of the US-led corporate decolonization of Iraq. But they have long been the hallmarks of colonialism and imperialism the world over." The Coming End of Cheap Oil "All economic activity requires energy, and roughly 40 percent of the world’s primary energy demand is met by oil...The drying-up of cheap conventional oil will do for the modern economy what a long drought does for agriculture. One obvious consequence will be a persistent replication of the “stagflation” – simultaneous inflation and recession – which followed the 1973-1974 oil embargo...Meanwhile, by a gruesome coincidence, right around the time oil peaks, the Baby Boomers will start flooding Social Security and Medicare beneficiary rolls." Defense Redefined Means Securing Cheap Energy "Behind George Bush's high-minded rhetoric on why America may go to war with Iraq is a long history of weighing the price of securing its oil supplies...As troops and equipment pour into the Gulf for a looming war with Iraq, United States military thinkers admit that "defense" means protecting the circumstances of "daily life" - and in the US daily life runs on cheap oil." U.S. Troop Redeployment "In August, U.S. President George W. Bush announced an ambitious ten-year plan for the redeployment of U.S. military forces around the world...Troops that remain abroad after the withdrawal from Germany and other parts of Western Europe will be positioned protectively around and within the centers of oil production and distribution in the Middle East, Caspian Sea and Africa. As demand for oil rapidly grows in China, India and other emerging industrialized states, the United States is constrained to gain control over energy supplies so that its domestic and security interests are satisfied. The aim of the United States is to be the protector and, therefore, beneficiary of the world's largest oil supplies." Will the End of Oil Mean the End of America? "The economic benefits are at least equally impressive. By reducing energy imports, the US would reduce its hemorrhaging trade deficit and the mortgaging of the nation’s future that such borrowing implies. A national corps of workers set to retrofitting the nation’s homes and businesses for energy efficiency would address employment problems for decades in a way that could not be outsourced to Mexico or India or China. And a more efficient industrial infrastructure would make all goods made in America more competitive with those made abroad. In all of these ways, Energy Reconfiguration raises, not lowers, the average standard of living while increasing the resilience of the economy as a whole." General Ashcroft's Detention Camp "Now more Americans are also going to be dispossessed of every fundamental legal right in our system of justice and put into camps. Jonathan Turley reports that Justice Department aides to General Ashcroft have indicated that a 'high-level committee' will recommend which citizens are to be stripped of their constitutional rights and sent to Ashcroft's new camps." See also Congressman Denied Access to Post-Attack Continuity Plans. Is a police state in America's future? The West's Battle for Oil "Strategic Energy Policy Challenges For The 21st Century describes how America is facing the biggest energy crisis in its history. It targets Saddam as a threat to American interests because of his control of Iraqi oilfields and recommends the use of 'military intervention' as a means to fix the US energy crisis. The report is linked to a veritable who's who of US hawks, oilmen and corporate bigwigs. It was commissioned by James Baker, the former US Secretary of State under George Bush Snr, and submitted to Vice-President Dick Cheney in April 2001 -- a full five months before September 11." Editor's note: If you deduct the energy cost of the American-provoked resource wars from the already low Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) of oil, it is readily apparent that these wars are a waste of energy. If you calculate the number of wind turbines your country needs based on Dick Cheney's estimates (3% decline of oil production per annum plus 2 % for growth), you will readily see that every available scrap of energy needs to be invested in energy conservation and wind turbines if your people and economy are to survive. The real purpose of the resource wars is population reduction. What is N.S.S.M 200 and Why Do Western Leaders Care So Much About Population Control? "For most of man's history, world population grew very slowly. At the rate of growth estimated for the first 18 centuries A.D., it required more than 1,000 years for world population to double in size. With the beginnings of the industrial revolution and of modern medicine and sanitation over two hundred years ago, population growth rates began to accelerate. At the current growth rate (1.9 percent) world population will double in 37 years." America's War Against Europe "What precipitated all of this was not September 11, nor a sudden realization that Saddam was still a nasty guy, nor just the change in leadership in the United States. What precipitated it was Iraq's November 6, 2000 switch to the euro as the currency for its oil transactions." Editor's note: "Free trade" became American foreign policy after its own resources began to be depleted. Under American-designed trade treaties and organizations, nations are obligated to sell their resources to the highest bidder. So long as these resources are priced in U.S. dollars, the United States has an inherent advantage because it can print an unlimited supply of dollars. It is a form of theft. A New American Century: Iraq and the Hidden Euro-Dollar Wars "Iraq was not about ordinary chemical or even nuclear weapons of mass destruction. The 'weapon of mass destruction' was the threat that others would follow Iraq and shift to Euros out of dollars, creating mass destruction of the United States' hegemonic economic role in the world. As one economist termed it, an end to the dollar reserve role would be a 'catastrophe' for the United States." Editor's note: Switching resource transactions (including oil) from dollars to Euros or gold is a powerful action the international community can take immediately to force the U.S. from its cruel path. Iran has taken the lead and is now accepting Eurodollars for oil. This is the real reason for U.S. hostility towards Iran at this time. See Project Censored "U.S. Dollar vs. the Euro: Another Reason for the Invasion of Iraq" and "Iran's New Oil Trade System Challenges U.S. Currency". Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil "The era of cheap, abundant oil, which has supported world economic growth for more than three quarters of a century, is most probably at or past its absolute peak, according to leading independent oil geologists. If this analysis is accurate, the economic and social consequences will be staggering. This reality is being hidden from general discussion by the oil multinationals and major government agencies, above all by the United States government. Oil companies have a vested interest in hiding the truth in order to keep the price of getting new oil as low as possible. The US government has a strategic interest in keeping the rest of the world from realizing how critical the problem has become." Ethnic Bomb Now Linked to Korean Intrigue "North Korea’s world-ranking expert working on a “whites-only” racial/genetic bomb...The “bomb,” which is more accurately characterized as a biological weapon, is designed to attack specific human genetic structures." Editor's note: The ungenerous "beggar-thy-neighbor" U.S. foreign policy that is designed to provoke a die-off of much or most of humanity will likely lead to World War III as the various peoples of the world fight to survive. This war will be enough to cause a die-off all on its own. Humanity must choose to build weapons or wind turbines. There are not enough resources to do both. Every nation should build wind turbines and simply abstain from the moral turpitude of the American-provoked resource wars. Rebuilding America's Defenses - Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century "And advanced forms of biological warfare that can "target" specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool." - page 60. See also 1,2. Editor's note: The "New Century" belongs to Iceland, Denmark, Germany and every nation that starts now to prepare for the end of petrochemicals. These are the nations that will survive to the end of the century. Thermal Depolymerization "If a 175-pound man fell into one end, he would come out the other end as 38 pounds of oil, 7 pounds of gas, and 7 pounds of minerals, as well as 123 pounds of sterilized water...for every 100 Btus in the feedstock, we use only 15 Btus to run the process." Editor's note: The Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) is 100/15 = 6.66. Means of Control "Available energy is the precondition for all resources -- including more available energy...An "energy-limited economy" is one where more energy cannot be had at any price. The global economy will become "energy-limited" once global oil production peaks in less than ten years (perhaps much less). J. Gever et al. has calculated that if society waits for the "market signal" before embarking on a crash program of alternative energy development, then the net energy available for non-energy sectors of the economy could drop to about 25% of present values before starting to climb again. In other words, about a 75% drop in energy available for non-energy GDP!" The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization Editor's note: This is what happens if we do not start building a post-petroleum civilization now. Beware Mad Max World of US "United States foreign policy would lead Australia into a "Mad Max world" where the US would shield itself behind missiles, the former prime minister, Paul Keating, said yesterday." The Empire Needs New Clothes "The last American statesman to put forth a different vision was President Jimmy Carter, who candidly pointed out to the American people that oil was a dwindling domestic resource. Carter said that we mustn't find ourselves in a position of having to fight wars to seize other people's oil, and that a decade or two of transition to renewable energy sources would ensure the stability and future of America without destabilizing the rest of the world. It would even lead to a cleaner environment and a better quality of life. Carter put in place energy tax credits and incentives that birthed an exploding new industry based on building solar-heated homes, windmill-powered communities, and the development of fuel alternatives to petroleum. Ronald Reagan's first official act of office was to remove Carter's solar panels from the roof of the White House. He then repealed Carter's tax incentives for renewable energy and killed off an entire industry. No president since then has had the courage or vision to face the hard reality that Carter shared with us." Bottom of the Barrel "Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don’t talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilization in denial...The only rational response to both the impending end of the Oil Age and the menace of global warming is to redesign our cities, our farming and our lives. But this cannot happen without massive political pressure, and our problem is that no one ever rioted for austerity."
Robert F. Kennedy
Jr.: The Next President's First Task [A Manifesto] Wind Energy In Denmark "One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is, of course, that electricity can only be produced where there is wind. In Denmark this problem was avoided by connecting the private wind turbines to the national grid, allowing fluctuations to average out and so provide a constant supply...Electricity produced from wind energy is currently not only environmentally friendly but also competitive in price to conventionally generated electricity." Wind Vs. Nuclear 2003 "At an equal investment, wind power generates 5 times more jobs and 2.3 times more electricity than nuclear." T. Boone Pickens and Wind Energy "Over the next four years he intends to erect 2,700 turbines across 200,000 acres of the Texan panhandle. The scheme is five times bigger than the world's current record-holding wind farm and when finished will supply 4,000 megawatts of electricity - enough to power about one million homes." Solar Energy Meets the New Global Challenge "Now, assuming a useful life of 30 years, older PV technology has had EPRs in the range of 4, and newer PV systems promise to yield EPRs above 15, better than declining oil fields still in production. Similarly, wind energy systems give clear indications of EPRs exceeding 50, comparable to oilfields in their prime. This means that energy investments in renewables now perform as well as or better than comparable energy investments to exploit oil. In other words, a barrel of oil invested in making a wind generator or a PV panel makes more sense in terms of net energy gain than investing it in pumping and drilling for oil. The implications for broad adoption of renewables are profound." Energy, Ethics and Feed-in Tariffs "Before going further, a brief explanation of FIT laws for the uninitiated: they place a legal obligation on utilities to purchase electricity from renewable energy installations. The tariff rate is guaranteed, and in the best examples, for a long period -- say 20 years. The tariff rate is scientifically determined for each technology, to ensure profitable operation of the installation." The Future of Geothermal Energy "The accessible geothermal resource, based on existing extractive technology, is large and contained in a continuum of grades ranging from today’s hydrothermal, convective systems through high- and mid-grade EGS resources (located primarily in the western United States) to the very large, conduction-dominated contributions in the deep basement and sedimentary rock formations throughout the country. By evaluating an extensive database of bottom-hole temperature and regional geologic data (rock types, stress levels, surface temperatures, etc.), we have estimated the total EGS resource base to be more than 13 million exajoules (EJ). Using reasonable assumptions regarding how heat would be mined from stimulated EGS reservoirs, we also estimated the extractable portion to exceed 200,000 EJ or about 2,000 times the annual consumption of primary energy in the United States in 2005. With technology improvements, the economically extractable amount of useful energy could increase by a factor of 10 or more, thus making EGS sustainable for centuries." - pages 1-4. "EGS" means "Enhanced Geothermal Systems" or "Engineered Geothermal Systems" and refers to drilling as much as 10 km into the earth in order to extract heat energy. Wind Maps U.S. and International U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Canadian Wind Energy Association American Wind Energy Association Permitting Small Wind Turbines: A Handbook (PDF, 496 KB) The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) and the California Energy Commission (CEC) have released the most comprehensive guide to date for small wind turbine owners and local officials seeking to understand and improve permitting regulations affecting small wind energy systems. Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweden, 2002 Proceedings of the Second International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Paris, France, May 26 - 27, 2003. 6th annual ASPO conference Cork, Ireland September 16 - 17, 2007. Watch online videos ASPO VII World Oil Conference, Barcelona, Spain, October 20-21, 2008
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